The method and data behind my estimates are available to Above Avalon members. (Sign up to access my 5,400 word Apple 3Q18 Profit Preview available here. To register, visit the Membership Page.)
Every quarter, I publish expectation meters in front of Apple's earnings release. Expectants measure single-point cover to more useful areas that help judge Apple's quarterly performance.
In each expectation meter, the gray shaded area represents my area of expectation. A result that falls within this range means that the product or variable that is measured performs as expected. A result in the green shaded area indicates strong performance and the possibility that I need to increase my estimates in the future. Conversely, a result in the red shaded area has the opposite effect, which potentially leads me to reduce my assumptions in the future.
- iPhone Device Sales
- "Other Products" Revenue
- 4Q18 Revenue Guide
My iPhone 3 Sales Expectation Area for iPhone is reporting between 41M and 45M devices . A result within this area will be seen as expected. If Apple reports iPhone sales over 45M devices, the results will be described as strong. A sub-41M iPhone device sales result would be considered weak and probably lead to a reassessment of my iPhone device sales expectations in the future.