Reliable supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities has published a new report focusing directly on Apple keyboards. Kuo publishes an updated timeline for when he thinks Apple will start using more reliable keyboards in MacBooks.
Butterfly to scissor switch
Kuo's latest investor research shares a fuller timeline for when we should expect each MacBook model to switch from the current butterfly keyboard to the more reliable scissor switch keyboard.
According to Kuo, every 2020 MacBook update will include a change from the problematic keyboard design of recent years to the proven and reliable case switch keyboard design of older MacBooks.
Apple's return to scissor keyboards will start this fall with the rumored 1
This is a shift from Kuo's previous prediction that Apple would start the transition with a refreshed MacBook Air this fall, followed by changes on the MacBook Pro line next year.
Apple released a slightly updated MacBook Air and new entry level MacBook Pros (with butterfly keyboards) next to the Back to School campaign.
MacBook Air plus 13- and 15-inch MacBook Pros will rely on butterfly keyboards throughout 2019 (bless their hearts), so every revision of MacBook Air and MacBook Pro in 2020 include a switch from butterflies to scissors.
This will probably also end the recent pattern for each new MacBook that was introduced and included in Apple's four-year keyboard replacement program one day. Having introduced the program for the original 12-inch MacBook from 2015 and each new MacBook introduced the page, Apple has automatically included new MacBooks in the program despite showing revisions of butterfly keyboard design.
Apple's desktop keyboards have remained on reliable scissors throughout the butterfly era.
Adoption of smart keyboard
Kuo also predicts that Apple's other keyboard, iPad Smart keyboard, will be adopted by multiple users over time thanks in part to iPadOS 13.  Apple introduces a number of changes in the iPad software that makes it more competitive for customers replacing Windows laptops and older laptops, and Kuo believes Apple's dome-covered keys manufacturers will benefit.
Kuo track Smart sales of keyboards will reach 2 million this year and double to 4 million by 2020 followed by a jump to 7 million over 2021.
Apple's Smart Keyboard is curre Not compatible with it latest iPad Air and all iPad pros.
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